RT-Engels: 24-10-2025,
As Russia tightens its grip across the front, Kiev faces the harsh reality of a shrinking army and a lost initiative
The past month has seen an intensification of fighting along several key sectors of the front – from Kupiansk and Liman in the north to Pokrovsk and Gulaipole in the south. Yet, beneath local advances and positional shifts, broader structural trends are shaping the balance of forces on both sides. The following overview examines these dynamics before turning to detailed assessments of each direction.
The state of the forces
The gradual deterioration of the Ukrainian army continues. As has been the case throughout the year, desertion remains the main source of manpower losses within the Armed Forces of Ukraine. During the first nine months of this year, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office opened more than 160,000 cases of desertion – a third more than during the entire previous period, starting in February 2022.
This is not traditional desertion – the case of a conscript sneaking away for cigarettes – but large-scale abandonment of posts. According to available data, despite a partial amnesty that lasted until late summer, only about seven to eight percent of those who deserted have returned. Most simply go home, bribe a local police officer, and disappear from view. With a shortage of both police and prison space, this tactic largely succeeds.
By Ukraine’s own estimates, desertion has caused the army’s losses to outpace new recruitment for more than a year.